Foxes & Hedgehogs - Nate Silver, Stella Creasy MP on Channel 4 News

Channel 4 News discussion with Nate Silver, the American psephologist who In the 2012 United States presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Stella Creasy MP, Harriet Boardman MP for West Worcestershire, and presenter Cathy Newman discuss how polls suggest what might happen were there an election today ("Labour would probably win"), how much they can change, and how polling is different in the US.

Click the picture or Watch it here

Where to find Stella Creasy MP for Walthamstow this week

• Saturday 27th April - attending the next Women of Walthamstow meeting.
• On Monday 29th April - on a discussion panel in Parliament about the use of social media in politics and campaigning as part of the local elections in the afternoon
• On Tuesday 30th April - attending meetings in Walthamstow as Parliament has been prorogued ahead of the Queen's Speech on the 8th May.
• On Wednesday 1st May - holding a number of meetings with local and national groups
• On Thursday 2nd May - attending the Ezekiel Amosu memorial concert
• On Saturday 4th May - holding an open advice surgery for residents at The Mall from 2 till 4pm. For an guaranteed personal appointment at a later surgery please call 020 8521 1223

Where to find Stella Creasy MP for Walthamstow this week

• Saturday 20th April – holding an open advice surgery at The Mall Shopping Centre in Walthamstow between 2pm and 4pm. All welcome. Please note this surgery may be subject to cancellation due to illness, so please check twitter or facebook for further details on the day. 
• Sunday 21st April – running the next #7days4stow meeting at St Mary's Welcome Centre. You can find details below.
• Monday 22nd April - holding an appointment only surgery. For an appointment at a future surgery call 020 8521 1223. Then attending a House of Commons debate on the Crime and Courts Bill as part of my work in the shadow Home Affairs team.
• Tuesday 23rd April - meeting with a number of organisations including the Daughters of Eve in Westminster 
• Wednesday 24th April - speaking at the 50 Foot Women Conference on mentoring women and then travelling to Germany to take part in a conference. 
• Saturday 27th April - attending the next Women of Walthamstow 

Where to find Stella Creasy MP for Walthamstow this week

• On Monday 15^th April – Parliament returns from recess and will be holding a series of meetings in Parliament as part of my work as a member of the shadow Home Affairs team as well as supporting the Everyday Sexism project. 
• On Tuesday 16^th April – meeting the #7days4stow communications group at The Goose at 8pm- all those interested in helping promote this campaign welcome.
• On Thursday 18^th April – hosting a focus group with the Outward Bound Trust about youth education and development and then speaking at a public meeting for Progress in Norwich. 
• On Friday 19th April being interviewed by Coventry University researchers for the Waltham Forest Open Society project and then attending a fundraiser for Eaves in support of anti-trafficking campaigners.  
• On Saturday 20^th April – holding an open advice surgery at The Mall Shopping Centre in Walthamstow between 2pm and 4pm. All welcome. 
• On Sunday 21^st April – running the next #7days4stow meeting at St Mary's Welcome Centre. You can find details below.

Chaos theory - violence interruption in Waltham Forest

The G2 section of the Guardian on Monday carried a piece by Ben Ferguson about the London group 'Chaos Theory'. It is of course nothing to do with the effects of a butterfly flapping its wings in Neasden on traffic problems in Guatemala, let alone at Whipps Cross roundabout. It is about an initiative originally developed to tackle out of control gun violence in Chicago and now being applied in Waltham Forest; its aim - to reduce gang violence through a process of  'violence interruption':

"Waltham Forest is representative of the capital in many ways. There are posh parts, poor parts, green parts and grey parts. It does, however, have some outstanding features: it hosted the 2012 Olympics and was the birthplace of William Morris and Alfred Hitchcock. Now, adding to the list of things to be proud of, is Chaos Theory, a "violence interruption" team that is taking a new approach to preventing the sort of youth attack that Danny was subject to.

"Established in 2011, the team works to interrupt the tit-for-tat cycle of violence that bounces between the borough's four rivalling areas – Walthamstow, Leyton, Leytonstone and Chingford. Their emphasis is on prevention rather than law enforcement: they work by approaching the victims, since one violent attack will inevitably lead on to the next, if nothing is done."

Violence interruption is a model built built by epidemiologist and physician Gary Slutkin who for 10 years battled infectious diseases in Africa. He observes that violence directly mimics infections such as tuberculosis and Aids and suggests that the treatment for violence should use the same approach applied to reversing the spread of these diseases, going after the most infected and stopping the infection at its source.

"Violence interruption is about effective persuasion by your own people. The principal role of law enforcement is to enforce the law. But the principal role of violence interruption is to prevent the law from being enforced. For violence, we're trying to interrupt the next event, the next transmission, the next violent activity. Violent activity predicts the next violent activity as [one incidence of] HIV predicts the next." He wants to shift how we think about violence from a moral issue to a public health issue.

Read the full article on the Guardian website here

Where to find Stella Creasy MP for Walthamstow this week

• On Thursday 4 April Meeting with technology companies to discuss the Draft Data Communications Bill as part of my brief with the shadow Home Affairs team and then speaking at the Stand up for Labour in Ealing.
• Monday 8^th April 2013 – Meeting with more of the project leaders from the #7days4stow project. For more information see below.
• Tuesday 9th April 2013- visiting the Colchester Road estate with CBHA housing officers at 11am , meeting more of the #7days4stow volunteers and then speaking at the Waltham Forest Trades Council Meeting on the Bedroom Tax. Details in diary column. 
• Wednesday 10^th April 2013 – attending a meeting with the Labour Women’s Network to support women's participation in politics. 
  Thursday 11^th April 2013 – Holding a surgery by appointment at the Town Hall. For an appointment on a future date call 020 8521 1223. 

U-Turn On Walthamstow Town Centre Police Station Counter Closure Plans

Following the proposals in the Mayor of London's original consultation on his Police and Crime Plan for London, he has changed his mind on plans to close the Walthamstow Police station front counter. Previously the Mayor intended to close the Walthamstow Town Centre Front Counter Service which would have left residents in Walthamstow without any such service in the area and having to go to Chingford or Leyton. Now these plans have been dropped and we will retain a front counter service in Walthamstow town centre. If you have views as to the times that this service is open- currently 10am to 6pm Tuesday to Saturday- please do get in touch.You can read about the Mayor's revised plans here. Thank you to everyone who supported the campaign to retain this service. 

Jennette's Five Minutes with....Cllr Mark Rusling

This is an extract from London Assembly member Jennette Arnold's latest newsletter:

"This week I talked to Cllr Mark Rusling, Waltham Forest Councillor and Portfolio Lead Member- for Economic Development and Corporate Resources.

1. How long have you lived in Waltham Forest?
 
I moved here in 2008 to buy my first house, having previously rented in Hackney. I made sure that I stayed in Jennette's constituency!
 
2. What made you decide to become a councillor?
 
I have never liked the attitude of seeing something that you don't like and, while not doing anything about it yourself, saying 'someone should do something about that'. If you think something should be changed, you should do something about it! 
 
Local councillors sometimes get some stick in the media - not least from this government, which should get its own house in order before it criticises anybody else. Yet, there is real power in local government to change people's lives for the better. I wanted to do that.  
 
3. As well as a local councillor you also hold the portfolio of economic development in the borough. How do you see the local economy developing in the next ten years and how will Waltham Forest continue to grow its reputation as a leisure destination?
 
We need to help those parts of our economy that are thriving to grow even more - healthcare, creative industries, food processing, among others. And, most importantly, we need to make sure that they are employing local people. If local people don't have the skills they need for those jobs, then that is where we can step in and offer courses so that our residents can get the very best jobs on offer.

As for leisure, the William Morris Gallery is an internationally-renowned destination. If you haven't been since its total facelift, you should get down there. I love the Vestry House Museum, in Walthamstow Village - those gardens make you forget that you're in inner London. And of course there is the jewel in the crown of football in East London - Leyton Orient. We're a great leisure destination."

To read the full article subscribe to Jennette's newsletter by emailing

jennette.arnold@london.gov.uk